Poor outlook for tanker market conditions

Tanker markets are facing mounting pressure as export disruptions continue to reduce seaborne oil volumes, while declining oil inventories increase the risk of higher prices, weaker economic growth and a significant contraction in tanker demand. According to Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at Bimco, the memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran on June 17 briefly raised hopes that negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would progress. However, negotiations have since stalled and the prospect of safe passage through the strategically important waterway remains uncertain. “With the security situation continuing, we maintain two forecast scenarios,” said Rasmussen. Under Bimco’s first scenario, conditions in the Strait of Hormuz begin to normalise gradually during the fourth quarter of 2026. Current conditions are expected to prevail throughout the third quarter, followed by a gradual recovery in Middle East oil exports. The second scenario assumes that the present disruptions continue throughout the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. Several developments were already weighing on tanker markets, he said. Year-to-date exports of crude oil and heavy petroleum products have fallen by 5.7% compared to the same period last year, while clean petroleum product exports have declined by 11.2%. Exports from the Persian Gulf remain well below previous levels, while Saudi Arabian exports through the Red Sea have also weakened. Russian exports are increasingly being affected by attacks on refineries, oil infrastructure and shipping. Rasmussen said tanker supply-and-demand conditions would improve during 2027 under the reopening scenario, particularly in the crude tanker segment. Cargo volumes would recover as exports resumed and depleted oil inventories began to be rebuilt. The outlook would be considerably weaker if the disruptions persisted. Under Bimco’s prolonged-closure scenario, tanker market conditions are expected to deteriorate further during 2027 as reduced export volumes, declining inventories and weaker economic activity increasingly weigh on demand. At the same time, accelerating fleet growth would place additional pressure on vessel utilisation and freight rates. LV