In what direction will the 'Trumpmobile' drive Africa trade?

Although US presidentelect
Donald Trump
hasn’t said much about
Africa in his foreign policy
speeches, commentators
are convinced that his trade
policy pronouncements so
far are likely to affect SA-US
trade relations.
It is pointed out that
the largest economy in the
world is one of SA’s biggest
trade partners, and US
political decisions therefore
often have repercussions in
this country
and the rest of
the world to
one extent or
another.
It's clear
that Trump
is opposed
to free trade,
and if this is
translated
into
government
policy, it is
likely to have an enormous
impact on the current global
trend towards liberalisation
of trade.
It is indeed almost
inevitable that it would lead
to growing protectionism in
international trade – with
all sorts of new pressures for
the global economy.
And, while previous US
regimes – particularly that
of Obama – have entrenched
good trade relations with
Africa, including SA,
through trade agreements
like the African Growth
and Opportunity Act
(Agoa), this Africa-friendly
stance could be in some
doubt when driven by the
Trumpmobile.
Trump’s self-assertive
international trade
declarations up to now have
focused mainly on China
and Mexico. But, while
he has not aimed any of
his barbed comments at
Africa, we can assume that
the right-wing stance of
the administration under
Trump is more than likely to
see some changes. Whether
detrimental or not is still
unknown,
but a harder
Republican
stance is
almost
certain.
Trump has
made it clear
that he is not
in favour of
trade deals,
especially
those that
he sees do
not favour the US. And
that stick can be waved at
Agoa, which gives a pretty
extensive range of African
export products duty- and
quota-free access to the
US market. And, with dry
goods from Agoa-approved
African countries now
totalling the equivalent
of about R55.5 billion, it
definitely feeds lifeblood
into the continent.
And SA export producers,
apart from chicken farmers,
have been among the
major beneficiaries of the
Agoa trade deal. But with
Trump’s anti-free-trade
pronouncements, Agoa’s
tax-free access to the US is
obviously hanging in the
balance.
Added to that is the
African offshoot of the
most-favoured nation
(MFN) tariff into the US.
According to the World
Trade Organisation (WTO)
website, based on 2014
data, the US has an average
applied tariff of 3.51% for
all products being imported
from other WTO members.
Averaged across all
industries, this is the
maximum tariff that the
US promises to impose on
imports from other WTO
members.
However, Trump, as part
of his stated protectionist
plans for American workers,
has already proposed the
imposition of a 35% tariff
on imports from any firm,
American or not, based
outside of the US.
Basically advocating for
a tenfold increase in the
average import tariffs that
are already in place, this
would take America’s tariff
levels way above those of
even the most protectionist
states – Pakistan (24.38%),
India (21.7%), and Thailand
(20.68%), according to the
WTO.
Possibly the only thing
that is likely to put the
kibosh on his plans to
massively increase import
tariffs to other WTO
members, is that the US
would become more prone
to retaliation by its trade
partners.
INSERT
With Trump’s anti-freetrade
pronouncements,
Agoa’s tax-free access
to the US is obviously
hanging in the balance.